Evaluation of profitability and future potential for low emission productive uses of land that is currently used for livestock SLMACC Project 405422
MPI Technical Paper No: 2021/13
Authors
Thomas S, Ausseil A-G, Guo J, Herzig A, Khaembah E, Palmer D, Renwick A, Teixeira E, van der Weerden T, Wakelin SJ
Abstract
Agriculture accounts for 48% of New Zealand’s gross greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with nearly 75% of the emissions coming from methane (CH4) production from ruminant animals (enteric-CH4) (Ministry for the Environment 2020). Changes to alternative low biogenic greenhouse gas emission (BGE) land uses is an option for reducing national GHG and meeting national reduction targets for overall GHG and CH4. However, large land use change will have implications for New Zealand’s economy. To address this, replacing profitable livestock with alternative profitable land uses would potentially overcome this concern.
This report describes work conducted in the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change (SLMACC) Project 405422 - Evaluation of profitability and future potential for low emission productive uses of land that is currently used for livestock. The aim of the project was to evaluate potential agricultural land uses (including crop and forest options) that could provide an alternative to livestock production based on market growth opportunities, GHG footprints and suitability for current climate and soil conditions.
Our approach was to produce a framework whereby we could consider the trade-offs between BGE and profitability. Firstly, we identified potential high value crops that could increase their production areas based on an assessment of market opportunities. Secondly, we assessed their growing requirements and identified where they might grow throughout New Zealand. Then, for each crop we estimated potential BGE and ranges in profitability; we also considered the role of forestry in emission reductions and as a profitable land use. Finally, we considered CH4 emissions reduction scenarios where these alternative land uses might replace livestock. Through the various stages of the work we ground-truthed our findings with stakeholders and industry experts